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Looking toward 2010… November 13, 2008

Posted by neoavatara in Politics.
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2010

Forget about 2012…that is too far away.

The real money is on gains in 2010.  Karl Rove has a nice analysis this morning:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122653996148523063.html

He goes over election results again…which I have already commented on.

More importantly is the future.  The out party has gained an average of 23 seats in off year elections.  One exception, 2004, was likely largely affected by 9/11.  The second exception was FDR post-war.

Reallocation of House seats in 2010 likely will shift 4 seats from the midwest, largely democratic areas, to Texas, Arizona, and Florida.  Additionally, history shows that good election cycles are followed by bad ones, and vice versa.

This is not to say that there aren’t serious hurdles.  Although, like previously stated, the voter surge never occurred this year, there were fundamental shifts.

  • 6.5 million more people voted this year than 2004; though 17 million more voted in 2004 than 2000.
  • Obama received approximately 7 million more votes than John Kerry…4/5 came from minority voters.
  • 3.3 million more African Americans voted this year; approximately 800,000 of those were Republican voters in 2004, that switched parties.
  • John McCain received 12% less of the Hispanic vote than G.W. Bush.
  • Approximately 4.1 million Republicans failed to vote this election cycle, who voted in 2004.

So clearly there are major hurdles both structurally and idealogically.  But potential for a comeback is there.

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